A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
